Dow’s Record Calls For Pullback

The Dow has only rallied for 10 or more days, 15 times since 1900.   This occurrence therefore warrants reflection; a uniquely psychological event providing historical precedence.  At first glance market returns after long Dow rallies are essentially normally distributed in the weeks and months following, nevertheless some instances show previous large rallies consolidating quickly over the next 10-15 days.  Coupled with the 3 high volume selloffs over the past 2 weeks (March 12,15,19) and large DJ transports spread (see March 15 brief), a market drop looks inevitable.  In 1996 stocks dropped 5.2% from their peak over the following 10 days.  Currently the S&P rests only 1% below its peak.

10-days in a row

Forbes 3/18/13

One thought on “Dow’s Record Calls For Pullback

  1. This most recent 10-day run showed the smallest gains ever, only 3.45%. I am not sure what to make of that: stock weakness or just a lull in volatility?

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