Lowered Expectations

Just like the FOMC, analysts have consistently underestimated the power of foreign buyers, demographics and low-productivity on long-term interest rates.  10-year yield forecasts have changed dramatically from the beginning of the year:


                                Previous:          New:  
Bank of America:       2.65%          1.50%
Citigroup:                   2.30%          1.60%
Goldman Sachs:        3.00%          2.00%
JP Morgan:                2.75%         1.55%
Morgan Stanley:         2.70%         1.25%